VIX Predicts Pits While Pundits Have Fits

VIX, measuring stock market volatility, last spiked this much in 2007.

vix_predicts_pits_while_pundits_have_fits

Coincidence?  This spike in VIX is predicting a recession (aka the pits) much like it did in 2007.

The result is recession-deniers aka pundits are having fits.  They are saying, “This can’t be happening.”

Meanwhile, believers in the predictability of VIX are saying “It is deja vu all over again. (Thanks to Yogi Berra)

Here are some other signs of a possible recession.

Mergers and Acquisitions Set Scary Record For May

/https://michaelekelley.com/2015/02/20/fed-warns-of-two-bubbles/

Would You Pay 39% More Than The Asking Price?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-27/when-will-we-ever-learn/

Here is how to prepare yourself.

8 Things To Do When Recession Happens

Good luck!

Elizabeth Warren will be the next Vice President

Elizabeth says she is not running for President.  But how about Vice President?

elizabeth

Okay.  I will take that as a maybe.

Young voters of the Jon Stewart generation are clamoring for truth in politics.  And they know (cue the Carly Simon music) nobody does it better than Elizabeth.

The “quit screwing the consumer” Congresswoman, has high admiration from all members of generations x, y and z.

Therefore, Elizabeth is the obvious choice for clinching the Democratic primary.

So Bernie or Hillary, which of you will be the first to get her in your camp?

PS The Carly Simon song would make a great tune on the campaign trail.

Dear Federal Reserve: Please Raise The Price of Gold

This sounds selfish but this is the only solution to prevent a world-wide recession.

prayingtogold

There are two possible solutions to the problem of the high dollar value and low gold price.  But before discussing the solutions, we need a little background information.

The Federal Reserve, the European Financial Organizations and the largest banks in the world have agreed to keep the US Dollar as the monetary standard.  To do that they need to manipulate the price of gold so it does not replace the dollar.  This means keeping the dollar high and the price of gold low.

Keeping the dollar high has the added advantage of keeping imports low which improves the US trade deficit.  Having a good trade deficit and a strong dollar gives the impression of a strong US economy.

One problem is Russia and China.  They are not happy with the high dollar value and low gold value.  Consequently they are creating their own monetary standard and creating exchanges in their own currency.  This allows them to avoid the US dollar completely.

Another problem is the largest banks such as JPMorganChase are dealing in large quantities of gold derivatives which is lowering the price of physical gold.  See this:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-09/are-big-banks-using-derivatives-suppress-bullion-prices

The real problem is the amount of debt of many countries around the globe.  Greece and the US are just 2 of 12 countries out of 64 whose debt is greater than their country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).  That means almost 20%of the largest countries in the world are in debt as seen in this website:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt

Now to discuss the solutions to the problems of  high debt and the high dollar value and the low gold price.

One solution is to let the nations in debt exchange their US dollars for gold.  But this could result in the depletion of US gold reserves and then the world would find out that the paper gold value does not equal the physical gold valueThat would cause a run on banks, a rush to cash and possibly a global recession.

Chris Powell of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee said, “The system may end when one country pulls the plug on it, exchanging U.S. dollars and government bonds for more gold — real metal — than is available, or when ordinary investor demand exhausts supply, which is more or less how the London Gold Pool ended in 1968.”

So a better solution is to raise the price of gold to eliminate the debt around the world.  Some people are proposing a 7 fold increase in price.

Chris also said, “… a study in 2006 by the Scottish economist Peter Millar concluded that to avert such a catastrophic debt deflation, central banks would need to raise the gold price by a factor of seven to 20 times in order to reliquefy themselves and devalue their currencies and society’s debts…”

For more information on what Chris Powell said, read the following website:
http://www.gata.org/node/14839

Okay.  I admit I own GLD and UDN and this would benefit me.  But now I am giving you the chance to also profit from this information.  here is some more useful information:

https://michaelekelley.com/2014/10/16/8-things-to-do-when-recession-happens/

Thanks

Greece Is Like Lehman Brothers

Both Lehman Brothers and Greece were denied a bailout.

Specifically the United States Government and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) refused to bailout Lehman Brothers and Greece, respectively.

stop_bullrun

 

Unfortunately close behind were/are lots of other troubled and unstoppable financial organizations and debt-ridden countries.  [It is like trying to stop a bull run with your bare hands, oh yeah, and a red bandana.]

Countries like Italy, Portugal, Ireland, and Belgium all have public debt over 100 percent of their country’s GDP.  Japan is over 200 percent.  See the following for detailed statistics.

http://www.statista.com/statistics/268177/countries-with-the-highest-public-debt/

Unfortunately Greece had debt payments that looked like Mount Everest on a graph.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/greeces-looming-debt-repayments-in-a-pair-of-charts-2015-06-02

The US Government and the IMF have been strict with Lehman and Greece, respectively.  Like the US Government, the IMF can be expected to panic with the next oncoming overwhelming group of debtors. 

To learn more about the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, read this.

http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2013/09/lehman-brothers-bankruptcy-and-the-financial-crisis-lessons-learned

Thanks

Cheating Death By Procrastination

Michael E Kelley's avatarMichael E Kelley

Here is my logic.  If most people retire at age 65 and the average life expectancy is 84 years, than that means most people live 19 years after retirement.

pushretirementThus if you postpone retirement, you should postpone death.

In other words, if I delay retirement until age 75, then I should live to age 94, right?

I gotta think positive.  I need time to rebuild my nest egg.

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Mergers and Acquisitions Set Scary Record For May

Please read the quote from MarketWatch.com below and guess why this is bad.

fish_eat_fish

“U.S. mergers & acquisitions activity is on track for a record month in May, with $241.6 billion of deals already announced, topping the previous record of $225.8 billion announced in May 2007, according to Dealogic data.”

ANSWER: The previous record was just before the Great Recession.

Specifically, eighteen months later the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was worth almost half of what it was in May 2007.

Here is a summary of why a recession is coming in plain English.

https://michaelekelley.com/2015/03/02/why-another-recession-is-coming/

Thanks to Team-Studer.net for the photo.

Bonds Dry Up – Derivatives Explode

Here is an excellent article about why derivatives are exploding.

nuclear

https://marketwatch.creatavist.com/story/7571

Here is a summary of that article.

The Volcker Rule was passed as part of the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill in 2010. It banned banks from trading securities with their own money, or proprietary trading. Nonetheless, banks had already wound down their proprietary trading operations in anticipation of the rule taking effect…

For larger investors, another trick to circumvent liquidity issues is to deal in more liquid synthetic securities such as derivatives contracts, which can be used to bet on the credit quality of a company without having to deal with the same liquidity problems of the bond market.

Douglas Peebles, chief investment officer and head of AllianceBernstein fixed income, says he finds himself using more derivatives. These allow buyers to invest in the same underlying assets, but in many cases, they can be assured of more liquidity that the actual bond. Bond guru Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund, also concedes that he has begun using derivatives in his Pimco Total Return Fund.

Here is another article.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/4-reasons-why-the-bond-market-is-going-wild-2015-05-12

The reasons are “four Feds”, less yield for more risk, lack of liquidity, and fear of a bubble.

For more on derivatives and tranches see this article.

Remember CDOs? They’re Baaaack!

 Good luck!

Next Recession Will Start With This Country

Do you sometimes feel like your world is upside down?  Well it is.

bubble_man

With international monetary policies pumping money to finance debt not productivity, everyone in the world will be drinking the Kool-Aid but wondering when it will end and with what country.

The answer is China.

Everyone knows China is the last growth engine.  So everyone is investing in the Chinese stock market.  Even Chinese teenagers are investing in it.

But some major financial analysts are very, very concerned with China’s debt which is 3 times over an international threshold.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/by-this-measure-chinas-banking-sector-could-implode-within-3-years-2016-09-19

Analysts are also concerned with sudden spikes twice this year in the cost to borrow yuan.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jump-in-overnight-hibor-a-sign-of-yuan-in-tumult-2016-09-19

But soon the money will run out as Chinese debt peaks and a huge panic will cause the Chinese stock market to crash.  That is why smart Chinese economists are buying up gold.

When the Chinese stock market crashes so will all International ETFs.  There will be no growth countries to move to.  All countries will be equal – equally bad.

The international oil companies will especially be hit hard.  That is because the drop will cause a further drop in oil prices.  Thus all highly leveraged oil companies will fold.  That will create a tidal wave of unpaid debt that someone will have to forgive.

The result will be huge banks with only 4% in equity will fold.  But this time the statement “too big to fail” will be ignored.

The Federal Reserve will take a lot of blame and will be totally revamped.  Most of its new members will be economists found outside of Wall Street.

New innovative policies like the Kelley Monetary Policy Rule will be adopted.

https://michaelekelley.com/2015/03/27/the-kelley-monetary-policy-rule/

Finally investment in infrastructure will be given priority like the Civilian Conservative Corps.  Like a Phoenix, the US economy will be reborn faster than most.

Stocks Could Have Worst April Since 1970

S&P 500 stocks dropped 9% in April 1970.  April 2015 could be similar.

buybacksbymonth

Our source for 1970 data is http://www.moneychimp.com/features/monthly_returns.htm

Here are the reasons April 2015 could be awful.

1. April 2015 is a buyback blackout period when corporations report earnings.

The dark columns in the above chart are the blackout months in which corporations cannot buy their own stock when reporting earnings.   After a blackout period in January 2015, corporation buybacks are the reason for the lift in the stock market in February 2015.  In fact, corporations have been buying twice as much stock as regular investors.  Like January, corporations cannot buy back stock during quarterly earnings reports in April 2015.  Here is more info.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-24/biggest-threat-sp-500-next-month-biggest-buyer-stocks-2015-enters-blackout-period

2. Oil companies will be reporting terrible earnings in April 2015

The price of oil has stayed around $50 a barrel, half of what it was a year ago, which is causing havoc with earnings.

“The Energy sector has witnessed the largest increase in the expected earnings decline (to -63.5% from -29.5%) since the start of the quarter. Overall, 30 of the 43 companies in this sector have seen EPS estimates cut by 20% or more to date”, per the website factset.com.

Also factset.com reports, “the Energy (-38.0%) sector is projected to report the largest year-over-year decrease in sales for the quarter.”

pe_ratio_10yrs

3.  Forward P/E Ratio is 17.0, above the 10-Year Average of 14.1

According to factset.com, “The current 12-month forward P/E ratio is 17.0. This P/E ratio is based on Thursday’s closing price (2089.27) and forward 12-month EPS estimate ($123.03).

At the sector level, the Energy (26.9) sector has the highest forward 12-month P/E ratio.

The P/E ratio of 17.0 for the index as a whole is above the prior 5-year average forward 12-month P/E ratio of 13.7, and above the prior 10-year average forward 12-month P/E ratio of 14.1.

In other words, stocks are overpriced and the P/E ratio is the highest it has been for 10 years.

Be prepared

8 Things To Do When Recession Happens

Good news

The good news is that corporations will probably buyback over $170 billion shares in May 2015 as the blackout period ends.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-goldman-sees-a-buyback-halt-as-a-big-opportunity-2015-03-24?dist=afterbell

24 x 7 Wayne’s World

Looks like my Holiday Wish for a 24 by 7 COMEDY internet service will come true.

waynes_world
Okay it probably will NOT air Wayne’s World reruns for 24 hours a day every day of the week.

But the point is somebody either listened to me or had a similar idea.

Back before Christmas, I wished for 7 things.  One was a wish for “an internet casting site dedicated to COMEDY”.  Here is the Holiday Wish post.

https://michaelekelley.com/2014/12/18/holiday-wish-list/

Now it looks like NBC will launch such a service.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2015/03/03/nbcuniversal-plans-comedy-web-channel/24329459/?csp=tech

See, wishes do come true.

What do you wish for?