TikTok Challenge: Avoid Fox News For 30 Days

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Pick among these 4 networks or a website like CNN.com or HuffPost.com.

If you hear a friend or relative saying any of the following, offer the TikTok Challenge aka Avoid Fox News for 30 Days for a chance to be trending online.

  • Those people.
  • Hang Mike Pence.
  • You can’t trust the elections.
  • Darn immigrants.
  • Hang Nancy Pelosi.
  • Make America Great Again.

Good luck! And may the best Native American win.

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Climate Change Your House

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Photo by Pixabay on Pexels.com

What the above house is doing to minimize the affect of Climate Change and what you can do.

  • Plant a tree on the west side of the house in front of windows. Make sure that the tree is not bigger than the house and loses its leaves in the winter.
  • Install awnings over windows that block sun in the summer and allow sun in during the winter.
  • Install weatherstripping around doors and windows to stop leaks of weather into the house during summer and winter.

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Opinion – All Schools Need Moral High Ground and Backbone

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Photo by Yan Krukov on Pexels.com

No, not prayer. Basically, ALL schools need the Ten Commandments minus the God stuff. We are so hung up with the God stuff, that we ignore the Ten Commandments. We lose out by separating church aka religion and state aka government.

If we take out the God stuff, the Ten Commandments cover most of what the major 7 or 8 religions in the world teach plus or minus “an eye for an eye” clause. In other words, the remaining 7 Commandments need to be taught in every school. Let’s review them.

Remember the Sabbath day. So taking Saturday or Sunday to reflect is a great idea. We all need to recharge our “batteries”. Take the time to rest, regroup, meditate. And if it includes practicing your favorite religion on Saturday or Sunday, then go for it.

Honor thy Father or Mother. This can be generalized to say honor or respect your elders whether it be father, mother, grandparents, teacher or some old guy down the street. These people have a lot more life experiences than you. They may have more stress and more knowledge.

Thou shalt not commit adultery. This is pretty obvious. Do not cheat on a significant other whether you are married or not. If there are compatibility issues, try to end it calmly and fairly and move on.

Thou shall not kill. Another obvious commandment. Punishable by death or life in prison.

Thou shall not steal. Also obvious but needs to be reiterated. As thieves get away with crimes, their friends and associates think it is okay to steal. A strong police presence is required coupled with a three strikes law that elevates the severity of the punishment. At the same time, we need to ask why did you steal? There may be a deeper issue such as poverty or drug use.

Thou shall not bear false witness. Plainly speaking, do not lie. Politicians are famous for lying. But they must be held accountable whether it is via fact checkers or some other means. If they get away with a lie, then society breaks down with more lies or by repeating the false narrative.

Thou shall not covet thy neighbors house. Again, plainly speaking, do not be jealous of others. This can lead to bad thoughts and bad deeds. Be happy with what you have.

Conclusion. So what this post is attempting to say is, let us encourage ALL schools to reinforce these remaining 7 non-God Commandments and then all of our communities will be that much better off. Thanks for your time.

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Renaissance Person – Someone with Many Talents

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This gallery contains 4 photos.

Renaissance Candidates [from my view] Bill Gates – Computer guy but not really artistic. So no. Steve Jobs – Computer guy with fascination with aesthetics. So yes. Thomas Jefferson – Politician, architect, inventor. So yes. Leonardo da Vinci – Artist, … Continue reading

Beachgoer Almost Forgets To Vote

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Do NOT let this happen to you. Courtesy of JAMES D. MORGAN, GETTY IMAGES.

The beachgoer was heard to say, “What are you looking at? I am trying to vote here. This is serious stuff.”

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#Assassination Book Trilogy

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Three fictional thrillers based in the future by Michael E Kelley.

Available now
Available Dec 2022
Coming
Summer 2023

Visit Amazon.com or BarnesandNoble.com or WalMart.com or Lulu.com to purchase a paperback or ebook. Make sure you buy the 2022 Edition.

Noble Edwin Publishing LLC – Publications – Table of Contents

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The Federal Reserve is Topsy Turvy [Yes I am old] But Can Be Improved

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The Federal Reserve has been slow to act for fear of market reaction. Here is proof.

  1. Kept balance sheet high for too long. Quantitative Easing (QE) has gone on too long.
  2. Drank the unemployment Kool-Aid and ignored other signals.
  3. Looked at CPI as temporary and ignored Wage Inflation.
  4. Did not increase frequency of meetings to once a month during tumultuous time.
  5. Reacted rather than be proactive.
  6. Targeted inflation at 2% when the previous 50 years averaged 2.5% inflation.

The Federal Reserve can take these steps to fix some things.

  1. Meet monthly.
  2. Reduce Balance sheet aka stop QE.
  3. Increase interest rates 0.25 each month and avoid 0.50 increases.
  4. Assume recession is coming and be prepared to stop tightening.
  5. Set inflation target at 3%.
  6. Add non-voting younger University Economics Professors to board.

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The Pandemic Must Be Over

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I found several headlines in highly respected magazines. It MUST be true!

I mean, celebrities said IT IS OVER so it has to be true. Right?

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I Feel Sorry For Putin

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Putin is a very, very busy man of power.

  1. Putin has to review and approve all media posts.
  2. Putin has to approve all bank transactions over $1000.
  3. Putin has to make sure each bank transaction results in pennies being added to his overseas account.
  4. Putin has to constantly restock his supply of poison.

Translation

Путин должен просматривать и одобрять все публикации в СМИ.
Путин должен одобрять все банковские операции свыше 1000 долларов.
Путин должен следить за тем, чтобы каждая банковская транзакция приносила копейки на его зарубежный счет.
Путину приходится постоянно пополнять запасы яда.

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Super ETFs and RoboInvestor (The Long and Short Of Investing)

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How would you like to make a lot of money even during a Recession?

And you do not have to sell your soul.

Before having the big reveal, let’s review a little history. 

History

1924                   1990       2006                2012 

MutualFunds -> ETFs -> InverseETFs->Long-shortETFs

First, mutual funds were created where your broker bought a batch of stocks at the end of a day for the long term.  These have usually been industry aka sector specific. 

Next, Electronic Traded Funds or ETFs came along that did the same as Mutual Funds with a long term bias by industry/sector but they have been allowed to be traded in real time. 

Then came Inverse ETFs which were ETFs but instead of long positions of stocks, these were only invested in shorted stocks for a particular sector or index.  Surprisingly, Inverse ETFs have not garnered a huge following though they perform well during a recession.

One unique recession strategy involves timing the move from regular ETFs to inverse ETFs.  But timing the market is well known to be very difficult and very risky.

What’s New?

Vanguard created possibly the first long-short ETF called the Vanguard Market Neutral Fund or VMNFX.  It tries to balance long investments in profitable growth stocks with short sales on failing stocks.

This is intriguing.  Most analysts already concentrate on an industry/sector and know the best companies as well as the worst ones.  These analysts already know which ones will beat and which ones will miss earnings estimates.  

Unfortunately, Vanguard makes several mistakes with VMNFX in terms of the long/short mix and the industry/sector mix.

First, VMNFX is neutral meaning it is 50% long and 50% short ALL THE TIME as seen in the following portfolio composition figure. 

Even though this last year has seen VMNFX beating many normal ETFs, it does NOT increase the percentage of long stocks when the market is going up NOR increase the short position when the market is going down. In other words, VMNFX never changes it long/short percentages.

Secondly, the VMNFX fund is charted to analyze A LOT of industries, as the previous composition figure shows, but with just a few analysts.  A group of normal ETFs covering many industries would have hundreds of analysts in comparison.  Consequently, the VMNFX fund has grown a mere 20% in 10 years as seen below in a hypothetical growth chart.

Is There A Better Way?

A better approach would be to have a group of sector specific ETFs that invest in a mix of long stocks and shorted stocks. These could be called Super ETFs because they are profitable in good times and could easily make money even in bad times like a recession.  How is that possible you ask?

Besides concentrating on a particular sector, Super ETFs would have several fund managers to determine the variable ratio of long purchases versus shorted positions.  For example, the ratio might be 75% long and 25% short during a normal market year.  

Fund Manager 1 might suggest 70% long and 30% short. Fund Manager 2 might suggest 80% long and 20% short.  The third Fund Manager might agree on the average of the other’s recommendations and end up with 75% long and 25% short.

But soon as a recession approaches, such as this year, a Super ETF might have a higher percentage of short positions. For example, 80% short and 20% long.

Fund Manager 1 might suggest 85% short and 15% long. Fund Manager 2 might suggest 75% short and 25% long.  The third Fund Manager might agree on the average of the other’s recommendations and end up with 80% short and 20% long.

Returning to Vanguard’s long-short VMNFX ETF, it is clear from the many industries in the portfolio above that the goal was to automate a complete investment portfolio mix for any investor.  But as already mentioned, this new long-short investment product took on too many sectors and, thus, failed to consistently beat other ETFs.  For example, the Fidelity Biotech ETF (FBIOX) grew 50% in ten years compared to VMNFX which grew only 20%.

Why Super ETFs?

A Super ETF has the higher probability of success because of its variable long-short mix yet dedication to a single sector as most normal ETFs do today.

Each Super ETF could also use the following standard recession predictors to change the percentage of long versus short positions.

1. Yield curve – Treasury 10 -year minus 2 year rates

2. Dow Jones Transport Index

3. GDP Now

4. VIX – Volatility Index

A better example than VMNFX is the 18-month old Leatherback Long/Short Alternative Yield ETF or LBAY.   As the following LBAY performance chart shows, it has grown from $24.50 per share to $29 YTD or 18% when most stocks are down this year.  Also, it has grown 45% since its inception in November 2020.  By the way, FBIOX is down 46% in that same 18 months.

But unfortunately, LBAY is hindered by the same philosophy as VMNFX of using a few analysts to cover a lot of industries/sectors.

How Should We Invest In Multiple Sectors?

Multiple Super ETFs can be used to achieve the intended VMNFX and LBAY goals of automation of a complete investment portfolio for any investor.

Several brokerages have created Robotic aka Software Tools such as Fidelity’ Go that invest in a mixture of funds, usually their own.  The goal of these is similar to VMNFX and LBAY: create a complete, automated, diversified portfolio. But Fidelity Go does not perform well in bad times because all of its ETFs are normal ETFs invested only in long-term products.

A RoboInvestor software tool could be designed to utilize just Super ETFs.  That way it leaves the long/short mix to the funds and can concentrate on creating a diverse portfolio.  

A RoboInvestor can take advantage of cyclical or seasonal sector trends.  It is common knowledge that cyclical stocks are volatile and tend to follow trends in the economy.  Also non-cyclical stocks tend to outperform the market during an economic slowdown.  For example, the RoboInvestor can invest in the retail sector before the end-of-the-year holiday rush and increased consumer sales.  The RoboInvestor can also rotate out of cyclical stocks and into defensive stocks depending on where in the business cycle the economy is headed. 

Here is a chart of historical performance of sectors across the business cycle that Fidelity provides and that a RoboInvestor tool can use.

Summary

In conclusion, you do not have to sell your soul to have an automated successful investment portfolio.  That is because investment success can come with a combination of Super ETFs and a RoboInvestor.  Together they can automate a complete investment portfolio for any investor. 

Super ETFs will have a proper mix of long and short stocks in a specific sector.  A RoboInvestor software tool will pick the correct mix of cyclical and non-cyclical sector Super ETFs.  The result is investors will see profitability automatically in both good times and during bad times such as recessions.

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