#FederalReserve Is In A Pickle

Here is the status of the Federal Reserve Board (Fed).

bbpickle

Background

Over a year ago the Federal Reserve Board (Fed) stopped Quantitative Easing, aka the buying of securities in order to pump money into the economy to stimulate it.

Feeling the economy was stable, the Fed just raised the Fed Funds Rate.  That is the interest rate the Fed charges banks.

Today

However, several other nations continued to lower their interest rates  and some have a negative interest rate policy, NIRP.  Here is more info on NIRP.

https://michaelekelley.com/2016/01/31/japan-why-negative-interest-rates/

Now the Fed is in a pickle because the Fed will look foolish if they reverse course and lower the Fed Funds Rate.

What Is Normal?

https://michaelekelley.com/2015/02/11/fed-inflation-target-is-abnormal/

According to the above website, if the Fed wanted the Inflation Target to be 2%, then the Fed Fund Rate should be 2% plus 1.44% or 3.44%.  Then 3.44% should be the normal Fed Funds Rate.

What Are The Fed’s Options?

How does the Fed get back up to the normal 3.44% Fed Funds Rate?  It can do one or both of these:

1.  Set the long-term interest rate to set a goal OR

2.  Keep unchanged or raise the Fed Funds Rate OR

3.  Offer another round of QE.

The best option is to have another round of QE which has the most influence and least fear while leaving the Fed Funds Rate alone.

Kelley Monetary Policy Rule

The Taylor Rule involves raising the Fed Funds Rate 1 percent for each 1 percent in inflation.  We have no inflation so the Taylor Rule is of no help.

The Kelley Monetary Policy Rule states the Fed Funds Rate will be increased gradually (such as .25% each quarter) and QE will be reduced gradually to zero at a rate inversely proportional to the Fed Funds Rate.

When the Great Recession hit, the Fed lowered the Fed Funds Rate AND offered QE at the same time.  Why can’t the Fed raise the Fed Funds Rate AND offer QE at the same time?

This should eliminate any fear by the Fed or the financial market and get us back to normal.

Good luck.

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Answers to The Assassination of Political Robocalls

Here are the answers to the questions asked at the end of the book, The Assassination of Political Robocalls by Michael E. Kelley.

assassinationpr_answers

To get the book, now available in paperback for $12.84, go to

http://www.lulu.com/shop/search.ep?keyWords=robocalls&categoryId=100501 

For more discussion, tweet #assassinationpr.

The Assassination of Political Robocalls

Sick of robocalls?  Then you will appreciate my new book entitled “The Assassination of Political Robocalls.”  This futuristic murder mystery features several plot twists.

cover_thumbnail

WHO SHOT THE PRESIDENT?

The year is 2034 and people are celebrating the 20th Anniversary of The Amendment.  Suddenly the President is shot.

THIS IS YOUR FUTURE!

This must-read book features over 55 predictions for the future. How many will you find and how many will come true?

To learn more about this exciting book and to get a copy, go to the following website.

http://www.lulu.com/shop/michael-kelley/the-assassination-of-political-robocalls/hardcover/product-21119862.html

Thanks

Kelley’s Software Installation & Upgrade Rules

Recently a site was performing a software upgrade over the weekend.  No big deal, everyone thought, because this happens thousands of times across the world every day.

stoprobocallsYours truly was on call to support the site if any issues arose.

Needless to say they called Sunday afternoon after message traffic had gotten stuck in their queues for several hours and queue refreshes had not made a difference.

What I learned about the site was amazing.  They had performed not one, not two, but three software upgrades all at once.  They only backed up the system at the beginning.  They were the first site to go to this release.

Well, this prompted me to draft the following list of rules.

  1. Never install release 1.0 of anything.
  2. Never be the first site for any release.
  3. Always read the release notes and review the installation instructions.
  4. Always hold a readiness review meeting to answer questions.
  5. Never start an installation or upgrade without a backup of both your database and your system.
  6. Never install or upgrade more than two releases at a time.
  7. Always backup your databases before your second upgrade.
  8. Optionally backup your system before your second upgrade.
  9. Always backup both your database and your system after the last release.
  10.  Always test the functionality mentioned in the release notes.
  11.  Always examine all the log files for errors.
  12.  Always hold a party when the smoke clears aka the system is stable.

Now I feel a whole lot better.  Creating this list was quite a catharsis.

Let me know if you agree or have something to add.

Hello world!

Thanks for visiting my site.  This is my world and I am sticking to it.  Hopefully you will find something of interest whether it is the latest advances in technology or something humorous to get your mind off the serious stuff.

Most of my life has evolved around computers working as a Software Engineer, implementing Database Management, and providing Project Management and Program Management.  But I am constantly trying to improve myself.

This website showcases many sides of me including:

Software-Database – extensive experience in database/SQL design, application development, and operations support.

Consulting – customer bonding to craft solutions to help them improve their jobs or lives via the firm Kelley Research.

Speaking – tailored public speeches using a vast background in Toastmasters International.

Publications – literary works including published stories, novellas and books in electronic or printed form through the company Noble Edwin Publishing.

Humor – attempts to make people laugh and get our minds off the serious stuff.

Futures – ideas of what will be forthcoming in society and technology.

Thanks for partaking.  Don’t forget to “Advance The Agenda”.  Have a great day!

Mike

PS Feel free to contact me and let me know what you need or what you are thinking.