Please read the quote from MarketWatch.com below and guess why this is bad.
“U.S. mergers & acquisitions activity is on track for a record month in May, with $241.6 billion of deals already announced, topping the previous record of $225.8 billion announced in May 2007, according to Dealogic data.”
ANSWER: The previous record was just before the Great Recession.
Specifically, eighteen months later the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was worth almost half of what it was in May 2007.
Here is a summary of why a recession is coming in plain English.
A LinkedIn.com article incorrectly proposed a future where employers share employees.
YOU MISSED IT BY THIS MUCH >< !
Employers need these 2 things from workers: 1. a certain amount of dedication without conflicts of interest and 2. a knowledge-base of the employer’s company processes.
These cannot be done with “contract labor” aka employee sharing as the article predicts.
INSTEAD JOB TRUSTS WILL EXIST.
The term “job banks” could just as easily be used but everyone hates banks.
These TRUSTS are the middle tier and act like a job service. They handle the pay and benefits for employees and possibly even the training. They will exist for groups of similar employees such as federal employees or software engineers.
The biggest problem with software engineers is the constant seesaw of waves of work and constant hiring, followed by layoffs and then hiring and then firing. Job Trusts will level the playing field.
My book “The Assassination of Political Robocalls” , which can be found at Amazon.com, foresees JOB TRUSTS along with 50 other predictions.
In conclusion, the article is correct that the future of work will be totally different. But Job Trusts will be the new paradigm.
THE FED has increasing employment as part of its charter. Yes, inflation is not the only goal in the charter.
As this chart shows,US businesses are NOT INVESTING in capital for the future and consequently few new jobs are being created.
The Center for American Progress (americanprogress.org) has recommended creating a NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE BANK to fix our crumbling national infrastructure.
THE FED can use the LENDER OF LAST RESORT powers which allow lending to any institution including states and cities not just the financial institutions which are only using the loans to pump up the stock market. THE FED could loan to the NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE BANK.
States and cities could use the loans for infrastructure which would CREATE JOBS similar to the Civilian Conservation Corps. For example the Fed could have used these powers to bail out Detroit.
Homeowners, that are PAYING ONLY INTEREST, are in for a shock.
Many people bought homes during the crazy days before the Great Recession. Many of them have been paying only interest on those mortgages. Now their payments are about to jump up to include the principal. Many people will have their house PAYMENT DOUBLE!
The number of homes involved constitutes a bubble as seen in the graph above.
For 2014 about $22 billion worth of homes are involved in home equity loans. If the average house is $215 thousand, then that means a little over a 100 thousand homes are involved. That is about 2.5% of the current home sales.
For 2015 the amount of home equity loans involved doubles from the previous year. Thus over 200 thousand homes could be involved or about 5% of current home sales.
This could result in a lot of foreclosures again if they are not refinanced.
Then with Quantitative Easing ending by January 2015, we could see a return of cash payments to normal levels which could result in a 10% drop in home sales.
The 5% increase in home inventory combined with a 10% drop in buyers could be a double whammy to the housing recovery. Let’s hope for the best.
Banker’s hours are so 19th Century! We are talking about stock exchanges being open ALL DAY Monday through Friday! That is my prediction.
This has several advantages to the general public.
First, I predict that you will be able to buy or sell stock at any time (except weekends) just like buying a book at Amazon.com.
After-hour trading has gradually increased over the years as stock markets make more stocks available for trade. Also stock exchanges have experienced mergers and acquisitions involving exchanges in other countries. So the exchanges are becoming international which requires support for many different time zones.
Secondly, no longer will institutions sneak in sales “at the close” or use “imbalance only orders” to modify the closing price.
Institutions have been using these “at the bell” prices when convenient or they cancel them if they won’t be profitable. This distorts the market price.
So 24 by 7 stock exchanges are good for the general public but bad for corporations. So it may be a while before we see them. Probably after some huge foreign corporation implements them.