#FederalReserve aka #Fed Discovers Gold – Fools Gold

No.  I am NOT talking about the movie, Fool’s Gold.

foolsgold

I am talking about the Fed finding wealth and a strong economy where there is none.

Like the little boy who cried “Wolf!”,  the Fed keeps saying “The Economy is good!”

Here is the fool’s gold the Fed uses to keep saying :The Economy is good!”

1. Auto sales are up.  Well they were up until the recently released May report showed a drop of 6%.  The recent auto sales were propped up by easy credit but now they have run out of buyers.  Here are details.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-autos-idUSKCN0YN4K0

2. Home sales are up.  Well they were up until the June 1, 2016 report.  Again home sales have been boosted by easy credit and low interest rates until now. Here are details.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/01/mortgage-applications-drop-because-of-rate-uncertainty.html

3. Unemployment is down.  Well unemployment has dropped to 4.7% but the recent jobs report announced June 3, 2016 showed a shocking one fifth the average number of jobs created.  Unemployment went down because more people have given up or are retired. Here are details.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/03/news/economy/us-economy-may-jobs-report/

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Here are the real concerns the Fed should be looking at.

1. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.  These firms have been using derivatives to hedge against interest rate changes and lost $475 million last year. Here are details.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/freddie-mac-may-need-another-taxpayer-bailout-next-week-2016-04-29

2. US Productivity.  The statistics show it went down 1% in the first quarter and now one of the Fed members says it may go down again this month. Here are details.

http://www.reuters.com/article/usa-fed-evans-productivity-idUSU8N16O051

3. Corporate Bond Sales.  These are still high and may match last year’s record in order to finance other mergers. Here are details.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-28/get-ready-for-a-big-wave-of-u-s-corporate-bond-sales-in-may

In summary, the 2008 bailout involved lower interest rates.  But the Fed should have raised interest rates in 2011 instead of maintaining the ridiculous 2% inflation target.  Here is how:

https://michaelekelley.com/2015/03/27/the-kelley-monetary-policy-rule/

Or if you want more information on whether a recession is coming or not, read this.

https://michaelekelley.com/2015/03/02/why-another-recession-is-coming/

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The Fed is chartered with controlling inflation and encouraging job growth.  One Fed member recently said they are too busy to add a third task aka improving the economy.  Well they have dropped the ball on job growth which would have improved the economy.  Here is what the Fed could have and still can do for job growth.

https://michaelekelley.com/2014/03/28/federal-reserve-can-create-jobs/

Good luck out there.

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The Future Includes Job Trusts

A LinkedIn.com article incorrectly proposed a future where employers share employees.

torn_photo

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

YOU MISSED IT BY THIS MUCH >< !

Employers need these 2 things from workers: 1. a certain amount of dedication without conflicts of interest and 2. a knowledge-base of the employer’s company processes.

These cannot be done with “contract labor” aka employee sharing as the article predicts.

INSTEAD JOB TRUSTS WILL EXIST.

The term “job banks” could just as easily be used but everyone hates banks.

These TRUSTS are the middle tier and act like a job service.  They handle the pay and benefits for employees and possibly even the training.  They will exist for groups of similar employees such as federal employees  or software engineers.

The biggest problem with software engineers is the constant seesaw of waves of work and constant hiring, followed by layoffs and then hiring and then firing.  Job Trusts will level the playing field.

My book “The Assassination of Political Robocalls” , which can be found at Amazon.com, foresees JOB TRUSTS along with 50 other predictions.

In conclusion, the article is correct that the future of work will be totally different.  But Job Trusts will be the new paradigm.

Thanks

Federal Reserve Can Create Jobs

THE FED has increasing employment as part of its charter. Yes, inflation is not the only goal in the charter.

underinvestment As this chart shows,US businesses are NOT INVESTING in capital for the future and consequently few new jobs are being created.

The Center for American Progress (americanprogress.org) has recommended creating a NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE BANK to fix our crumbling national infrastructure.

THE FED can use the LENDER OF LAST RESORT powers which allow lending to any institution including states and cities not just the financial institutions which are only using the loans to pump up the stock market.  THE FED could loan to the NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE BANK.

States and cities could use the loans for infrastructure which would CREATE JOBS similar to the Civilian Conservation Corps.  For example the Fed could have used these powers to bail out Detroit.

Read about it on wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_System#Lender_of_last_resort

Thanks

Stuck In The Middle of Middleware?

Have you ever felt stuck with something?

stuckThere have been products in the software industry that have been a little less than spectacular.  For instance, Motif was supposed to be the new holy grail for developing graphical user interfaces (GUIs).  (I know I am showing my age.)  But it was slow coming up to the screen.  Why?  Because the Motif designers, decided to load everything into memory at start up.  Even rarely used functions.

Now comes middle ware products.  And guess what?  The designers of those products decided to load everything into memory upon start up.  You know what happened?  Yep, they were slow at start up.  You would think developers would learn from past mistakes.

But in addition, middle ware products were bogged down because the functions stayed in memory.  That is because they were designed and tested for middle sized problems.  Yes the name for these products was “Middle Sized Ware”.  But marketeers decided the name limited the market for sales, so they dropped the “sized” part.

So why don’t software companies load functions into memory “as they are needed”?

So why aren’t software systems designed in case they are used by a thousand users?

It is because software companies are in a hurry and want to keep costs down.  So they hire cheap, inexperienced developers.

The solution is to hire a few experienced people (not all) and take some time to design a killer app like Steve Jobs did.  Nobody ever said they got stuck with an iPhone.