How Watergate Affected #StockMarket

Sometimes you just gotta look at history.  Watergate affected the Dow Jones.

djia_1970s

This chart shows the 1974 recession started months before Nixon resigned.  In fact, about 18 months after the Watergate break in.

Here is more information.

http://time.com/money/4783032/nixon-watergate-stocks-trump-comey/

You have a connection.

1.  Is impeachment gonna hurt?

2.  How often does the DJIA go down?

3.  Was bitcoin a fluke?

4.  Can you say rollercoaster?

Everyone needs the human connection.

 

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Explaining #BREXIT

Why is this such a shock and what does it mean?.

brexit

 

SHOCK

The financial world is in shock  because they like the status quo.

The BREXIT was approved because the world aka the 99% including Britain wants change, any kind of change.  Which of course explains Donald Trump’s success in the US.

The polls probably did not reflect the last minute decision makers and instead reflected the people who were able to be polled aka the retired people on the street who had time to answer silly polling questions.  These are generally conservative people who do not like change.

WHAT DOES BREXIT MEAN? 

Well the financial world is in turmoil because they also do not understand what this means.  So you can expect the stock markets around the world to be very negative for quite a while.  There may be enough negativity that we may experience a recession, which a number of respected economists have predicted for months.

ANALYSIS

Change is coming.  The demographics show the population is becoming more diverse aka less Caucasian.  Also the young voters are saying “We are tired of inequality and of politicians paid by the rich to do their work.  Your generation had your chance.  Now it is our turn and we are going to do something different.”

If you want some other financial advice, see this.

https://michaelekelley.com/2014/10/16/8-things-to-do-when-recession-happens/

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Why GLD Is Bad and GOLD Is Good

Friends, here is why the GLD fund aka ETF is the worst investment if you like GOLD.

gold2confetti

1.  GLD Is Paper Gold

GLD is actually the SPDR Gold Trust Electronic Traded Fund.  It is a promissory note for GOLD.  It is backed by physical gold but the real ratio is controversial.  See

http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2011/11/15/is-gld-really-as-good-as-gold/#7b10e4f93ca1

2.  GLD Is Supported By The Fed Which Wants the US Dollar High and Gold Low

In a previous post, I discussed how the US Dollar and GOLD move in opposite directions.

In that post, I explained that the Federal Reserve wants to keep the dollar high so to do that, it depresses GOLD prices by encouraging the sales of paper GOLD.  See

https://michaelekelley.com/2015/07/20/dear-fed-plz-raise-gold-price/

3.  GLD is a CDO aka Tranche

Remember the Great Recession of 2008?  It was brought on by CDOs and tranches based on bundled mortgages.  GLD is a tranche aka a bundle of paper gold.

Statistics prove that 13% of CDOs before the Great Recession were sold to multiple buyers.  It is like selling an acre of land in Florida multiple times.

https://michaelekelley.com/2015/01/28/remember-cdos-theyre-baaaack/

4.  Paper Gold is rumored to be oversold by 200 times

You need to read this.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-30/paper-gold-dilution-hits-294x-comex-registered-gold-drops-new-all-time-low

5.  GLD Has Lagged Gold Mining Stocks Year To Date

NEM, a gold mining stock, is up 34% from 01/01/2016 to 2/5/2016.

Meanwhile GLD is up only 10% from 01/01/2016 to 2/5/2016.

That is probably because investment companies are avoiding GLD.  So NEM is a GOOD investment right now not GLD.

 

Here are Solutions when a Recession Comes

https://michaelekelley.com/2014/10/16/8-things-to-do-when-recession-happens/

 

Here is Some More Information

Lessons From How The Great Recession Happened and What A CDO Is

http://www.ase.tufts.edu/gdae/Pubs/te/MAC/2e/MAC_2e_Chapter_15.pdf

Good luck!

PS  I own NEM and care about you but I cannot be held responsible for your decisions.

VIX Predicts Pits While Pundits Have Fits

VIX, measuring stock market volatility, last spiked this much in 2007.

vix_predicts_pits_while_pundits_have_fits

Coincidence?  This spike in VIX is predicting a recession (aka the pits) much like it did in 2007.

The result is recession-deniers aka pundits are having fits.  They are saying, “This can’t be happening.”

Meanwhile, believers in the predictability of VIX are saying “It is deja vu all over again. (Thanks to Yogi Berra)

Here are some other signs of a possible recession.

https://michaelekelley.com/2015/05/29/mergers-and-acquisitions-set-record/

/https://michaelekelley.com/2015/02/20/fed-warns-of-two-bubbles/

https://michaelekelley.com/2015/02/24/would-you-pay-39-more-than-asked/

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-27/when-will-we-ever-learn/

Here is how to prepare yourself.

https://michaelekelley.com/2014/10/16/8-things-to-do-when-recession-happens/

Good luck!

Stocks Could Have Worst April Since 1970

S&P 500 stocks dropped 9% in April 1970.  April 2015 could be similar.

buybacksbymonth

Our source for 1970 data is http://www.moneychimp.com/features/monthly_returns.htm

Here are the reasons April 2015 could be awful.

1. April 2015 is a buyback blackout period when corporations report earnings.

The dark columns in the above chart are the blackout months in which corporations cannot buy their own stock when reporting earnings.   After a blackout period in January 2015, corporation buybacks are the reason for the lift in the stock market in February 2015.  In fact, corporations have been buying twice as much stock as regular investors.  Like January, corporations cannot buy back stock during quarterly earnings reports in April 2015.  Here is more info.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-24/biggest-threat-sp-500-next-month-biggest-buyer-stocks-2015-enters-blackout-period

2. Oil companies will be reporting terrible earnings in April 2015

The price of oil has stayed around $50 a barrel, half of what it was a year ago, which is causing havoc with earnings.

“The Energy sector has witnessed the largest increase in the expected earnings decline (to -63.5% from -29.5%) since the start of the quarter. Overall, 30 of the 43 companies in this sector have seen EPS estimates cut by 20% or more to date”, per the website factset.com.

Also factset.com reports, “the Energy (-38.0%) sector is projected to report the largest year-over-year decrease in sales for the quarter.”

pe_ratio_10yrs

3.  Forward P/E Ratio is 17.0, above the 10-Year Average of 14.1

According to factset.com, “The current 12-month forward P/E ratio is 17.0. This P/E ratio is based on Thursday’s closing price (2089.27) and forward 12-month EPS estimate ($123.03).

At the sector level, the Energy (26.9) sector has the highest forward 12-month P/E ratio.

The P/E ratio of 17.0 for the index as a whole is above the prior 5-year average forward 12-month P/E ratio of 13.7, and above the prior 10-year average forward 12-month P/E ratio of 14.1.

In other words, stocks are overpriced and the P/E ratio is the highest it has been for 10 years.

Be prepared

https://michaelekelley.com/2014/10/16/8-things-to-do-when-recession-happens/

Good news

The good news is that corporations will probably buyback over $170 billion shares in May 2015 as the blackout period ends.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-goldman-sees-a-buyback-halt-as-a-big-opportunity-2015-03-24?dist=afterbell

Why Another Recession Is Coming – In English

Friends, here is a tutorial on how we got here and how to prepare for the worst.

ssminnow
Easy Money

The Federal Reserve (Fed) offered Quantitative Easing (QE) 3 times.  At first it saved the big banks and the stock market started going up.  But then the Fed kept giving out easy money to the big banks.

Leveraged Loans and Junk Bonds

The banks, that received the QE money, issued junk bonds and leveraged loans that were used for debt creation not real products and services.  Specifically QE went to Mergers and Acquisitions (M & A) and oil investments.  Here is an example.

Richard Baker, chief executive, along with his investment firm, NRDC Equity Partners, relied heavily on borrowed [leveraged loan] money. Of the $1.2 billion that it paid for Lord & Taylor, only $25 million [2%] came in the form of equity, with the remainder made up of debt financing. [The New York Times]

Do you think any of us could buy a house with 2% down? Nope.

New Bubbles

For 2014, three things happened.  The dollar reached a new record high, the Dow Jones hit a record 32 times and leveraged loans went back to 2008 pre-recession levels.  Some economists are calling this a bubble.  Here is a chart to prove it.

See https://michaelekelley.com/2014/12/20/leveraged-loans-predict-crash/

Some Good News

The good news is the stock market is up, gas prices are low and unemployment is back to 2003 levels.

But the Economy Struggles

The economy is struggling for several reasons.  First, the easy money went into debt rather than real products which creates jobs.  Secondly, very little money went into infrastructure which also creates jobs.

And Wage Inequality Is Greater Than Ever

The CEO to worker compensation ratio is 296 to 1 today versus 20 to 1 in 1965.   The rich have gotten richer.  Unfortunately the upper class does not change its spending patterns.  Several studies have proved this despite what politicians say.

So the economy has stalled even though the stock market is up.  Only the middle and upper classes have money to invest in the rising stock market.

Oil Price Drops and Leveraged Loan Bubble Bursts

Oil prices have dropped because of excess supply and over-leveraged oil investors.  For more information see this easy to understand website.

http://wolfstreet.com/2014/12/07/bloodbath-in-oil-patch-junk-bonds-leveraged-loans-defaults/

Solutions for the Federal Reserve and Congress

Here are some solutions because blogs should offer solutions rather than just complain about our problems.

There is still time for the Federal Reserve to pump up the economy by providing funding specifically for infrastructure which will create jobs and kick start the economy.  Also Congress, or better yet, each state can raise the minimum wage.  The economy will only take off if new jobs are created or lower class or middle class people get pay raises.

Here is a list of 7 suggestions that will not soak the rich.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/7-ways-to-help-the-middle-class-without-soaking-the-rich-2015-02-05?page=1

But if the government drags its feet or does more of the same Quantitative Easing, here is what you can do to prepare for the worst.

Solutions for the Rest of Us

https://michaelekelley.com/2014/10/16/8-things-to-do-when-recession-happens/

Lessons From How The Great Recession Happened and What A CDO Is

http://www.ase.tufts.edu/gdae/Pubs/te/MAC/2e/MAC_2e_Chapter_15.pdf

Good luck!

A Wild And Crazy Year So Far

I am talking about the stock market year-to-date.

wild_crazy_guys

Every day since the year started, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the most widely watched American index, has swung up or down in the triple digits i.e. over 100 points.

2015_djia_daily

In fact, the average swing each day since Jan 1, 2015 has been 268 points for the Dow.

2015_djia_volatility

What does this mean to the average Joe?

In a nutshell, volatility means worry for the future. And investors hate volatility.

The good news is there were four large changes of the DOW of more than 300 plus or minus points before a recession happened in 2008.  So we can predict the next recession.

Here is an excellent detailed look at the current volatility by Forbes.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/billgreiner/2015/01/23/stock-market-volatility-and-what-its-return-means-for-the-global-financial-system/

Now that is wild and crazy.

8 Things To Do When Recession Happens

Yeah it is not a matter of IF but WHEN the next recession will happen.  Sorry.  You could go ride a roller coaster to get your mind off of it.  Or you could do these things.

rollercoaster

Recessions occur every 4 to 8 years in a society with capitalism and little regulation.  And since the last one was in 2008….

Here’s what you should do.

1. DON’T PANIC – Stay calm.  Most people will be doing one thing – panicking. You won’t.

2. THINK, THINK, THINK – Be smarter than the rest. Know when to sell, when to buy and, like Kenny Rogers, when to hold.

3. SET UP ALERTS – Get an E*Trade or other brokerage account and set up messages when Dow (DJIA) goes up 3% or goes down 3% in a day.

4. RECALIBRATE AT NOON EASTERN TIME – If you have time, think about your next sell or buy of what and for how much before the market closes.

5. IF UP, SELL – When there is a jump up in stocks, sell your stock and funds 25-35% at a time.  You may have to wait to use the money.   Time is on your side.

6. IF UP AND GOLD IS DOWN, BUY GOLD – Gold usually moves opposite of stocks, so buy gold or gold mining funds such as NEM which will move up when stocks crash.

7. IF UP, BUY SHORTS – Shorts are stock buys that you expect to go down.  Pick losers on purpose.  Also choose bearish ETFs such as PILS and TECS that rise if the stock price of pharmaceutical or tech companies goes down.

8. IF DOWN, WAIT – Remember we agreed to not panic.

There will be four 400+ gains or losses of the DOW before a recession happens.  Anybody can take advantage of them. And I know you will. (There have been 4 days in August and September 2015 with over 400 point ups and downs.)

Or you can go ride a roller coaster to get your mind off of the market’s ups and downs.

P.S. I care about you, but can’t be held responsible for your results.

Revised: 04/10/2016 DUG is volatile since oil producers are considering fixing output quantities.

Wall Street Open 24 x 7

Banker’s hours are so 19th Century!  We are talking about stock exchanges being open ALL DAY Monday through Friday!  That is my prediction.

wallstreet24x7

This has several advantages to the general public.

First, I predict that you will be able to buy or sell stock at any time (except weekends)  just like buying a book at Amazon.com.

After-hour trading has gradually increased over the years as stock markets make more stocks available for trade.  Also stock exchanges have experienced mergers and acquisitions involving exchanges in other countries.  So the exchanges are becoming international which requires support for many different time zones.

Secondly, no longer will institutions sneak in sales “at the close” or use “imbalance only orders” to modify the closing price.

Institutions have been using these “at the bell” prices when convenient or they cancel them if they won’t be profitable.  This distorts the market price.

So 24 by 7 stock exchanges are good for the general public but bad for corporations.  So it may be a while before we see them.  Probably after some huge foreign corporation implements them.

Wall Street Crash Could Happen Again

On April 8, 2013 new more sophisticated Securities and Exchange Commission rules seeking to prevent another flash-crash tookeffect, but some observers are dubious about how effective they will be in another crisis-situation.

On August 1, 2012 the Knight Capital Group had a $400 million trading snafu.

On May 6, 2010, the Flash Crash occurred where the Dow Jones fell 9.2% in a matter of minutes.  Finally a short story that explains how it could have happened and how it might happen again. 

Computer_room

Click on Flash Crash Epitaph  to read this short story.  Enjoy!