Category Archives: Consulting

Sell The VA Hospitals

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The US Federal Debt could use the cash.

Why is the US Government in the hospital business?

Let Veterans go to any hospital of their choice.

Each VA hospital went over budget and finished past original deadlines.

The newest, the Colorado VA hospital, is state of the art, and more than $1 billion over budget. The project took 14 years. Under several presidents and VA secretaries, costs ballooned from $328 million to $1.73 billion as of its opening.

There are 172 VA medical centers and 1,138 outpatient sites. Why?

Sell The US Postal Service

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The US Federal Debt could use the cash.

Why is the US Government in the delivery business?

Why do I have 4 delivery trucks driving down my street every day but I have to walk to the mailbox to get my mail?

Here is an idea.

  1. All the delivery services deliver packages to a local Post Office before noon.
  2. Post Office sorts the packages.
  3. Post Office delivers the packages and mail in the afternoon.

As a result, the gas of 3 delivery trucks is saved which helps the environment.

Oh, and I do not have to walk to the mailbox.

The Assassination of a Broken Democracy Is Available Now

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PLOT

Three seemingly random characters are running for their lives in this fictional thriller.

BROKEN DEMOCRACY

The book “Tyranny of the Minority” has 15 points to be implemented to fix our Democracy. But they are mostly about voting rights which are hard to quantify and get passed.

Likewise, Bernie Sander’s “Our Revolution” has lots of voting rights proposals. He also has a lot of financial reform proposals but misses the core problems.

“The Failure of Laissez Faire Capitalism” blames banks and the 1% for our problems but misses the fact that the underlying problem is our broken Capitalist Democracy and concepts allowed under Citizens United.

“The Assassination of a Broken Democracy” uses a thriller story to subliminally propose getting rid of 10 problems that did not exist 200 years ago. Some of the 10 problems include gerrymandering, filibuster and super PACs.

“Tyranny” and “Revolution” propose changing some of these but offer no process to get change done.

On the other hand, “Assassination” proposes a solution to eliminate these problems which did not exist 200 years ago.

Originalists like SCOTUS Judge Alito want to put us back 200 years. Since these 10 problems did not exist 200 years ago, they should agree to get rid of them.

AVAILABLE WHERE AND WHEN

I hope you enjoy “The Assassination of a Broken Democracy” as much as I did in bringing it to you. It is currently available at Lulu.com.

https://www.lulu.com/shop/michael-e-kelley/the-assassination-of-a-broken-democracy/paperback/product-kvnr4ee.html

Coming soon to Amazon.com and BarnesandNoble.com.

Michael E Kelley

“College Students Too Stoopid to Vote” – Cleta Mitchell of GOP

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NASHVILLE — A top Republican legal strategist, Cleta Mitchell, told a roomful of GOP donors over the weekend that conservatives must band together to limit 1. voting on college campuses, 2. same-day voter registration and 3. automatic mailing of ballots to registered voters, according to a copy of her presentation reviewed by The Washington Post.

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FOMCGPT Is Better Than FEDERAL RESERVE

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Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sets policy for the Federal Reserve.

Data to Monitor Once A Month \\ 50 Plus Year Average \\ Acceptable Range

  1. Consumer Price Index YOY (CPY) Avg 3.8% Range 3%-5%
  2. Case Shiller Home Price Index YOY (HPY) Avg 5.29% Range 3.5%-7%
  3. Unemployment Rate (UR) Avg 5.73% Range 4.5%-7%

Tools Available

  1. Raise/lower Federal Funds Rate if CPY is too high/too low
  2. Raise/lower Federal Mortgage Rates if HPY is too high/too low
  3. Raise/lower Quantitative Easing if UR is too low/too high
  4. Auction Off Troubled Financial Institutions

Financial Institution Tests

  1. Uninsured deposits / domestic deposits < 50%
  2. Loans and held-to-maturity securities / total deposits  < 50%
  3. Financial Institutions that fail both tests for two consecutive quarters are auctioned off.

RESULT: No peer pressure, no human error, no recessions!

FOMCGPT(tm) To The Rescue!

A ChatGPT bot (FOMCGPT) has been designed to generate Federal Reserve policy once a month incorporating the algorithm above using easily modifiable configuration files. It is being tested using Federal Reserve FRED data from April 2021 to April 2023.

The Federal Reserve is Topsy Turvy [Yes I am old] But Can Be Improved

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The Federal Reserve has been slow to act for fear of market reaction. Here is proof.

  1. Kept balance sheet high for too long. Quantitative Easing (QE) has gone on too long.
  2. Drank the unemployment Kool-Aid and ignored other signals.
  3. Looked at CPI as temporary and ignored Wage Inflation.
  4. Did not increase frequency of meetings to once a month during tumultuous time.
  5. Reacted rather than be proactive.
  6. Targeted inflation at 2% when the previous 50 years averaged 2.5% inflation.

The Federal Reserve can take these steps to fix some things.

  1. Meet monthly.
  2. Reduce Balance sheet aka stop QE.
  3. Increase interest rates 0.25 each month and avoid 0.50 increases.
  4. Assume recession is coming and be prepared to stop tightening.
  5. Set inflation target at 3%.
  6. Add non-voting younger University Economics Professors to board.

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The Low and High Trailing Execution (LHTE) Stop Order

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#FederalReserve aka #Fed Discovers Gold – Fools Gold

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No.  I am NOT talking about the movie, Fool’s Gold.

foolsgold

I am talking about the Fed finding wealth and a strong economy where there is none.

Like the little boy who cried “Wolf!”,  the Fed keeps saying “The Economy is good!”

Here is the fool’s gold the Fed uses to keep saying :The Economy is good!”

1. Auto sales are up.  Well they were up until the recently released May report showed a drop of 6%.  The recent auto sales were propped up by easy credit but now they have run out of buyers.  Here are details.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-autos-idUSKCN0YN4K0

2. Home sales are up.  Well they were up until the June 1, 2016 report.  Again home sales have been boosted by easy credit and low interest rates until now. Here are details.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/01/mortgage-applications-drop-because-of-rate-uncertainty.html

3. Unemployment is down.  Well unemployment has dropped to 4.7% but the recent jobs report announced June 3, 2016 showed a shocking one fifth the average number of jobs created.  Unemployment went down because more people have given up or are retired. Here are details.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/03/news/economy/us-economy-may-jobs-report/

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Here are the real concerns the Fed should be looking at.

1. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.  These firms have been using derivatives to hedge against interest rate changes and lost $475 million last year. Here are details.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/freddie-mac-may-need-another-taxpayer-bailout-next-week-2016-04-29

2. US Productivity.  The statistics show it went down 1% in the first quarter and now one of the Fed members says it may go down again this month. Here are details.

http://www.reuters.com/article/usa-fed-evans-productivity-idUSU8N16O051

3. Corporate Bond Sales.  These are still high and may match last year’s record in order to finance other mergers. Here are details.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-28/get-ready-for-a-big-wave-of-u-s-corporate-bond-sales-in-may

In summary, the 2008 bailout involved lower interest rates.  But the Fed should have raised interest rates in 2011 instead of maintaining the ridiculous 2% inflation target.  Here is how:

The Kelley Monetary Policy Rule

Or if you want more information on whether a recession is coming or not, read this.

Why Another Recession Is Coming – In English

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The Fed is chartered with controlling inflation and encouraging job growth.  One Fed member recently said they are too busy to add a third task aka improving the economy.  Well they have dropped the ball on job growth which would have improved the economy.  Here is what the Fed could have and still can do for job growth.

Federal Reserve Can Create Jobs

Good luck out there.

#Revenge Knows No #Religion Even In #Syria

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People that are so angry that they seek revenge are in a hate zone.

vader

REVENGE

Examples of haters that sought revenge include Adolf Hitler and Star Wars’ Darth Vader both of whom sought to eliminate an entire race and were not religious.

But why do so many terrorists seek revenge and appear to have religion?

RELIGION

First the religion part of the question.  Muslims will admit that the terrorists say they have a religion but in fact the beliefs of terrorists do not resemble Islam.

Secondly many terrorists are from Syria or are Syrian supporters.  Why?

SYRIA AND WISCONSIN

Syria is about the size of Wisconsin.  Imagine the Governor of Wisconsin decided he did NOT want to step down and really wanted to keep his power.  First he started bombing his adversaries and then started bombing everyone.  Next he started using chemical weapons against his citizens.  Finally outside parties started bombing its citizens.  What do you think the people in Wisconsin would do?

Wisconsinites would migrate to another state.  That is exactly what is happening with Syrians in Europe.

Meanwhile a small percentage of Syrians decided to take revenge for the people that bombed their cities for several years and destroyed their lifestyle.  This could be people that supported President Bashar al-Assad or people that did not support him.

Thus you have terrorists trying to get revenge against several countries.

SOLUTION

So how do we solve this crisis?  We stop bombing Syria and start rebuilding it.  Shouldn’t there be money in the Defense budgets to fix returning soldiers as well as rebuild the cities we destroyed?  Some will say that is going too far.  But can we agree to at least stop the bombing?

Can I have an Amen, Ameen or Shalom?

 

SQL Question – Use Case Statement or Cursors?

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Are you split over whether to use a CASE statement or CURSORS in your SQL code?

torn_photo

This article will help clarify your dilemma.

First of all let’s agree that both methodologies are useful for performing actions on a database table based on processing one SQL data row at a time.

Now let’s look at the main characteristics of each methodology.

CURSORS

Looks more complicated. Support costs are higher.

Best when working with multiple tables and complicated algorithms.

Here is an example of inserting into a second table using the first table.

This rudimentary example processed 25,000 rows in 45 seconds.

cursor_sql

CASE STATEMENT

Looks simpler.  Easier to maintain.

Best with select and where clauses used on a single table.

Here is an example of inserting into a second table using the first table.

This rudimentary example processed 25,000 rows in 137 seconds.

case_sql

CONCLUSION

Each methodology has its advantages and each can help you get where you are going.

Good SQL, good night.